旅游外汇收入对国民经济增长的贡献

依据时间序列的平稳性检验可以判定：旅游外汇收入和经济增长两时间序列之间应不是协整的。由于协整是时间序列之间存在长期均衡关系的一种表现方式，因此，与通常的认识相反，在长期的趋势方面，旅游外汇收入与经济增长之间其实并不存在长期的均衡关系。此外，VAR模型及其Granger因果关系检验也说明，我国的旅游外汇收入与经济增长之间即使在短期内也不能确定其相互问因果关系的次序。既然如此，现阶段将旅游产业作为我国国民经济整体发展的“支柱产业”、“先导产业”、“重点产业”的时机事实上并不成熟。

Probe into the Contribution of Foreign Exchange Earnings from Tourism to the National Economic Growth

Based on the stationarity test of time alignment, it can be determined that there is no cointegration between foreign exchange earnings from tourism and economic growth. Because cointegration is a form of expressing long-term equilibrium relations between time alignments, it does not exist a long-term equilibrium relation between foreign exchange earnings from tourism and economic growth from the perspective of long-term tendency. Besides, the testing results of VAR model and Granger causality also show tha...