基于灰色模型的韶山红色旅游景区客源预测

用灰色模型对红色旅游景区进行客源预测,可以解决少信息不确定性问题,结果有一定的可信度。但是灰色模型(GM)预测系统也存在一定的局限性,主要表现在对原始数据的选取有要求,要将原始数据作AGO处理后,成为较有规律的递增曲线方能建模预测。韶山红色旅游客源预测的灰色建模结果表明,即使原始数据的选取不完全符合GM(1,1)建模的要求,如并非一直处于稳定增长期的红色旅游景区,也可尝试用灰色模型来进行预测,关键在于是否先对原始数据进行适当的预处理。

ON PREDICTING TOURISTS OF SHAOSHAN RED TOURISM SCENIC SPOTS ON GRAY MODEL

Predicting tourists of red tourism scenic spots on Gray Model can solve the problem of less and uncertainty information,and the results are credibility.But there are also some limitations to the Gray Model(GM) prediction system,it is mainly in the selection of the raw data,it can only model to predict tourists after dealing with the raw data for AGO to be more regular incremental curve.The results of tourists forecast of modeling on Gray System in Shaoshan show that,even if the selection of the raw data is ...