福海县牧民牧草地流转行为影响因素研究

新疆是我国五大牧区之一,随着"定居兴牧"工程的实施,牧草地流转也逐渐普遍,因此对牧草地流转行为的影响因素进行研究,对牧草地合理利用、牧民增收以及畜牧业的健康发展有着重要的现实意义。文章以新疆福海县156户牧民调研数据为基础,运用logistic模型对牧民牧草地流转行为的影响因素进行了实证分析。模型结果表明:(1)牧民年龄、流转意愿和牧民对当前牲畜价格满意度对牧草地转入有显著的负向影响;户主文化程度、家庭子女数、养殖牲畜头数、家庭劳动力人数和现有牧草地面积对牧草地转入有显著的正向影响。(2)牧民年龄、现有牧草地面积和牧民对当前牲畜价格满意度对牧草地转出有显著的正向影响;家庭子女数和牧民对社会保障满意度对牧草地转出有显著的负向影响。虽然影响牧草地流转行为的微观因素较多,要使得牧草地得到合理利用开发,还需要加强宏观政策的落实。

INFLUENCING FACTOR OF PASTORAL AREAS OF HERDSMEN GRASSLAND TRANSFER BEHAVIOR IN FUHAI COUNTY

Xinjiang is one of the five major pastoral areas.With the implementationof the "settle down to develop animal husbandry" project, the right transfer of the grassland is general. The study on the influencing factors on pasture land circulation has important practical significance in rational utilization of grassland, herdsmen and healthy development of animal husbandry.Based on the survey of 156 herdsmen in Fuhai county, this paper analyzed the influencing factor of herdsmen grassland transfer behavior by using logistic model.The results showed that 1)age, transference willingness and the satisfaction on the current price had great negative effects on the herdsmen glass land transfer-in behavior; the number of children, the head of the household culture degree, the livestock, family labor force and existing grassland area had great positive effects on the herdsmen glass land transfer.2)age, the head of the household culture degree, and the price satisfaction had great positive effects on the herdsmen glass land transfer out behavior; the number of children and the satisfaction of social security hadgreat negative effects on the herdsmen glass land transferout behavior. Although there were many factors that affected the behavior of pasture land transfer, it needed to make a reasonable use of the development of grassland and strengthen the implementation of macroeconomic policies.