贸易“新常态”背景下中国出口贸易模式转型的成本考量

以贸易成本和生产成本的变化为切入点，运用2003年至2013年27个行业的面板数据，比较分析了劳动力成本、企业规模、劳动生产率在2008年金融危机前后的两个时期内对于出口贸易的不同影响，以此说明成本因素变化对于贸易转型的作用机制。研究结果表明，一方面，劳动力成本的提高是影响我国出口贸易向贸易“新常态”转变的重要原因。另一方面，规模经济所带来的成本优势正在弱化，重“量”而轻“质”的粗放型外贸发展模式不可持续。

New Normal in Export Trade and the Cost Considerations of the Transformation of China's Export Trade Model

In the post-crisis era, export trade of china is changing from the ultra fast growth to the low speed growth. Taking this as the background, we use the manufacturing industry data to analyze the labor costs, enterprise scale and labor productivity different impacts on the export trade in the two periods that before and after the economic crisis of 2008 and in order to analyze the mechanism of the change of cost factor to the trade transformation.This paper argues that, on the one hand, the transformation of the export trade can be affected by the increasing labor costs. On the other hand, this change also shows that the advantages of economies of scale are diminishing. we contend that the extensive mode of export trade is not sustainable.