Technology—An increasingly dominant factor in corporate strategy

The paper considers the implications for future corporate strategy of the probability that the capitalist world is in the down-phase of a 50-year long-wave Kondratieff' economic cycle. Without commitment to a universal theory of long-wave generation the author proposes a lifecycle model of a whole industry or dominant technology. He deduces from this the likelihood confirmed by some historical data that major industries will at best survive one cycle and will almost inevitably decline after the next. Individual firms within such sectors will go down with the industry unless they face the need early enough in the decline phase to embrace a new technology in the next up-phase. The author provides a framework for diagnosing the phase of the lifecycle occupied by an industry or firm. He suggests that by combining this with an existing model of corporate strategy a company can plan a course of action that will improve its chances of survival.