贸易碳排放量测算及结构分解分析——以北京市为例

使用投入产出方法,运用北京市2005年、2007—2010年的投入产出表数据,测算北京市市内需求诱发的碳排放量,调出、出口诱发生产的碳排放量以及调入、进口减少的本市碳排放量,并对各部分变动进行效应分解。实证结果表明：北京市贸易整体上增加了碳排放量,并且调出、调入作用分别大于出口、进口作用;各部分碳排放量靠前的行业一般集中在原材料、燃料及其加工型行业以及属于第三产业的交通运输及仓储业;北京市节能减排需要重点增加原材料、燃料及其加工型行业以及交通运输及仓储业的进口,减少其调出;同时,充分发挥北京市服务贸易的优势,增加低碳类服务贸易的调出,减少该类服务贸易的进口。

Measurement of Embodied CO2 Emission and Analysis of tI s Structure Effects of Tr ade---A Case of Beijing

This paper uses the input- output model to calculate embodied CO2 emission caused by international and domestic trade of Beijing, and uses SDA model to analysis its effects, using the input - output table data in 2005, 2007 and 2010. The empirical results demonstrate the following three facts： （ 1 ） trade of Beijing increased its embodied CO2 emission overall, and emissions relate with output and transfer are higher than that of export and import ; （2） those highest emission industries caused by trade are transportation and warehousing, industries relate with raw materials, fuel and its processing; （3） Beijing should increase import of those highest emission industries, and decrease their output; at the same time, make full use of the its advantage in service trade, increase the output of low carbon service trade and reduce its import.