中国经济周期波动的制度冲击效应分析

经济制度变革成为中国宏观经济经历的影响最深远的整体性、持久性的外生冲击之一,制度变动的冲击对我国经济周期的变动特征产生了深刻的影响。文章运用经济计量方法对制度冲击改变我国经济周期特征进行了检验,并通过市场化程度、非国有化水平和开放度三个制度冲击变量检验了其与我国经济周期波动的相关性,其结论证明在我国受政治背景的影响而出台的重大的经济制度改革对经济的发展影响巨大而深远,制度变动冲击对经济的周期变动的方向及程度起到了较大的决定作用。

An Analysis of the Effect of Institutional Shocks on China's Business Cycle

The reform of China's economic system has become one of the most profound,long-lasting and comprehensive shocks that China's macro economy has ever experienced.It has greatly influenced the moving characteristics of China's business cycle,which is tested in this paper with econometrical method.The paper also tests the correlation between the business variable and the three institutional shock variables which are degree of marketization,the level of privatization,and the extent of opening up to the outside.The results show that the institutional shocks have great influences on China's macro economy in terms of their effectiveness in deciding the direction and range of a business cycle.