基于全截面数据的我国彩票业与宏观经济关系实证研究

为探究彩票业与宏观经济的内在关系,运用协整分析技术和格兰杰因果检验模型,对国内31个省市1992～2010年的国民收入和彩票销量构成的截面数据进行实证分析。结果表明国民收入的增长是彩票销量增长的格兰杰原因,而彩票销量的增长不是国民收入增长的格兰杰原因。但从彩票的社会生态免疫功能视域,彩票产品能够满足人们的"赌性"需求,具有抑制赌资外流的生态免疫功能。建议管理部门树立彩票市场的社会生态管理理念,设置合理的彩票销量额度区间;加大非法赌博监管力度,通过减少赌资外流来增加彩票资金的销售额;同时开发出更多的彩票博彩产品来更好地满足人们的"赌性"需求,使彩票发行能更好地为我国社会公益事业发展服务。

Demonstrative analysis of Chian lottery industry and macro economy relation based on overall cross section data

In order to explore the inner relations of lottery industry and macro-economic,by using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test model,this paper analyzed the cross-sectional time-series data of GNP and lottery sales in 31 domestic provinces and cities between 1992 to 2010 years.And the results show that the increasing of GNP Granger causes lottery sales,not vice versa.However,in sight of the social and ecological immune function,the lottery can meet to the people's "gambling" demands;and it can inhibit the outflow of gambling money.So we should,to establish the social and ecological management ideas in lottery market,and set a reasonable amount of lottery sales range;to increase supervision of illegal gambling;to reduce the outflow of illegal gambling money to increase lottery sales;to develop more lottery gaming products to meet people's "gambling" demands;to make it better serve the development of China's public welfare services.