公共投资对经济增长作用的滞延性研究——以公路建设为案例

为有效揭示公共投资对经济增长作用的滞延性,本文采用基于面板数据的向量自回归方法,建立三阶滞后PVAR模型,对中国31个省级单位1994～2004年的公路投资建设与经济增长关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,公路投资与经济增长之间的作用具有显著的滞延性;同时我们发现,二者之间的作用机制是复杂的、多重的和多样的,两者间的基本关系是"非对称互动关系"。在对二者滞延性进行深入分析的基础上,本文给出了二者之间的作用机制流程图,并对政府如何更好地进行公共投资决策提出了建议。

The Delayed Role of Public Investment in Economic Growth: a Case Study

To know the delayed role of the public investment in the economic growth,this paper uses Panel Data Vector Autoregression to establish an econometric model with three lags,and makes a case study on the relationship between road investment and economic growth based on Chinese 31 provinces' data from 1994 to 2004.The research indicates that there are remarkable delay between the road investment and the economic growth,that the interaction mechanism is complicated,multiple and diversified,and their basic relationship is asymmetric dynamic interaction.Then we conclude the flow chart of interaction mechanism based on the analyses,and some advice is put forward on public investment policy.