多边贷款是否促进了公共投资

自中国恢复世行成员国合法席位以来,多边贷款一直是我国公共投资的重要来源,它占公共投资的比例最高达到27%,平均8.6%,累计金额已达数百亿美元.这些贷款是促进了中国的公共投资水平,还是提高了政府消费,又或者降低了税收,这方面的评价研究很少.本文在宏观经济学的相关理论和模型基础上建立起一套Cowles Commission结构方程组,分别利用1978～2001年的国家和省级两层数据,对上述问题进行了评价.我们的计量分析结果表明,多边贷款并没有促进公共投资的增长,反而降低了税收,提高了政府消费水平.这种影响不同地区是有差异的.总的来看,这种传统意义上的消极影响没有波及私人投资和经济增长.

Does Multilateral Loan Increase Public Investment?

Since China resumed her legal chair in World Bank, loan from multilateral institutions has been an important source of Chinese public investment. Its ratio to public investment once peaked at 27 percent with an average ratio of 8. 6 percent. The accumulative amount has reached several tens of billion U. S. dollars. Has this loan increased public investment or consumption? Has it deducted tax level? These questions are waiting for an academic answer. This paper tries to establish a group of Cowles Commission structural equations based on macroeconomic theories and empirical models and to answer the above questions using national and provincial data from 1978 to 2001 respectively. Our econometric analysis indicates that multilateral loan does not increase public investment. On contrary, it deducts the tax and increases government consumption. Furthermore, the influence is varying in different regions. However, the kind of traditional negative results has no negative impact on private investment and economic growth.