The Relation Between Investor Uncertainty and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from the Property‐Casualty Insurance Industry in the USA

Abstract:   This paper investigates the relationship between investor uncertainty, gauged by properties of analysts' forecasts, and the stock market response to earnings. We find that uncertainty is best characterized by a comprehensive measure recently proposed by Barron, Kim, Lim and Stevens (1998) , BKLS. The BKLS measure is related to uncertainty‐inducing events, as well as factors that affect the difficulty faced by analysts in forecasting earnings. We conclude that, first, pre‐disclosure uncertainty is a significant determinant of the price reaction to the earnings release, and second, BKLS is a more comprehensive measure of uncertainty than simple dispersion.