人民币汇率改革的效应和趋势分析

通过对汇率改革以来人民币汇率走势和效应分析,我们认为,人民币汇率开始变得富有弹性、基本能够反映市场供求关系,而且2％的一次性升值幅度对宏观经济和企业层面的影响和冲击相对较小。但从市场趋势看,人民币还有进一步升值的空间。因此,走内需主导型发展道路、扩大对外直接投资、采取措施限制贸易顺差过快增长、加快人民币衍生产品市场建设是当前化解人民币升值压力和防范汇率风险的主要对策。

An Analysis of Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform and its Trends

Based on an analysis of the situation and effects of shifting RMB exchange rate regime, we hold that RMB exchange rate is becoming more elastic and reflect the law of supply and the demand. One-shot revaluation of RMB by 2 percent only had an insignificant adverse impact on both macro economy and enterprises. However, RMB will continue to appreciate in the long run. Therefore, in order to release the pressure on RMB revaluation and contain exchange rate risks, we should take the following measures, among others: (i) expand domestic demand as a major economic drive for further growth (ii) encourage FDI outflows; (iii) control rapid growth of trade surplus; (iv) develop the RMB derivatives market.