人民币外升内贬探源与未来汇率走势分析

2007年夏美国次贷危机的爆发助推人民币内外价值发生偏离，而在此背后，我国经济转型阶段的发展失衡才是人民币外升内贬的深层次原因。中短期内，随着美国次贷危机的逐渐停息，人民币“外升内贬”的趋势总体可能通过国内通货膨胀的逐步回落而得以缓解。长期来看，随着我国逐步实现经济金融和内外经济的均衡发展，人民币内外价值将逐渐趋于统一，届时将表现为与经济增长相适应的温和通货膨胀以及人民币汇率的整体稳定。

Insights on RMB Current State and Future Tendency

The outbreak of the U.S. subprime crisis in the summer of 2007 has led to the imbalance of RMB's value at home and abroad. However, the essential cause of this phenomenon lies in the imbalanced development during China's economic transition. This tendency will be alleviated with inflation curb in the short run, while in the long run, RMB's value at home and abroad will tend to unifi cation, with the outward manifestation of mild inflation and stable exchange rate of RMB.