环境规制、能源消费结构与雾霾——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

采用我国30省(市、区)2003—2012年面板数据,分析环境规制强度、能源消费结构与雾霾之间的关系。首先,以PM10浓度指标进行聚类,把30省(市、区)划分为高、中、轻三大污染地区。其次,面板单位根检验结果显示各变量是一阶单整I(1);Pedroni和Kao协整检验表明变量之间存在协整关系;FMOLS回归发现,全国总体环境规制强度与PM10浓度呈反方向变动,能源消费结构与PM10浓度呈同方向变动;高污染地区能源消费结构对PM10浓度产生正的影响,中、轻污染地区环境规制强度对PM10浓度产生负的影响。最后,提出了使用法律、经济手段加强环境规制,降低煤炭消耗比例、发展清洁能源等建议。

Environmental Regulation,Energy Consumption Structure and Hazy in China-Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Data

This paper examines the relationships between environmental regulations ,energy consumption structure and hazy in China by means of the panel data of the 30 provinces (cities ,districts) during 2003 -2012 period . Firstly ,the 30 provinces (cities ,districts) are divided into high ,medium and light pollution areas by clustering in PM10 concentration index .Secondly ,with the panel unit root tests ,we found that all panel variables are I (1) process .Both the Pedroni and Kao co‐integration tests show that there are co‐integration relationships between variables .Using FMOLS estimating method ,we found that environmental regulation intensity and PM 10 concentration changes in the opposite direction in China .On the contrary ,energy consumption structure and PM 10 concentration changes in the same direction in China .The energy consumption structure has positive effect on the PM10 concentration in high pollution area .The environmental regulation intensity has negative effect on the PM 10 concentration in the medium and light pollution areas .Finally ,we put forward suggestions such as strengthening environmental regulation using legal and economic means ,reducing the proportion of coal consumption ,developing clean energy and so on .