并购目标识别:来自中国证券市场的证据

如何利用公开信息在并购公告发布前识别并购目标是并购研究的热点问题之一。本文以中国A股市场2001年至2008年股权并购且控制权转移的目标公司为样本,采用单因素方差分析、多重共线性诊断和Logistic回归技术筛选变量并建立并购目标预测模型。研究发现,中国市场上的并购目标公司具有高财务杠杆、低偿债能力、盈利能力差、增长乏力、股权分散且股份流动性强等特点。虽然该模型解释能力较强,但其预测准确率不高,说明在中国市场上预测并购目标是难以实现的。

Identifying Acquisition Target:Evidence fromChina Stock Market

How to predict acquisition target by using publicly available financial information receives attentions from scholars and professionals.This paper takes targets which are equity acquisitions and took place from 2001 to 2008 in China stock market as samples,establishes acquisition targets predicting model via ANOVA,collinearity diagnostic and Logistic regression.The empirical study shows that acquisition targets characters high leverage,low solvency and profitability,low growth,dispersal equity with high liquidity.Although it can identify characteristics of acquisition targets,predicting model with low accuracy indicates that it is difficult to predict acquisition targets in China market.