Extreme Value Analysis of Mortality at the Oldest Ages: A Case Study Based on Individual Ages at Death |
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| Authors: | Samuel Gbari Michel Poulain Luc Dal Michel Denuit |
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| Institution: | 1. Institut de Statistique, Biostatistique et Sciences Actuarielles, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium;2. Institute for the Analysis of Change in Historical and Contemporary Societies, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium;3. Estonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia;4. Institut de Démographie, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium |
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| Abstract: | In this article, the force of mortality at the oldest ages is studied using the statistical tools from extreme value theory. A unique data basis recording all individual ages at death above 95 for extinct cohorts born in Belgium between 1886 and 1904 is used to illustrate the relevance of the proposed approach. No leveling off in the force of mortality at the oldest ages is found, and the analysis supports the existence of an upper limit to human lifetime for these cohorts. Therefore, assuming that the force of mortality becomes ultimately constant, that is, that the remaining lifetime tends to the Negative Exponential distribution as the attained age grows is a conservative strategy for managing life annuities. |
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