人民币国际化的现状、影响及未来货币政策取向

当前人民币国际化具有外汇储备的扩大、币值的稳定、金融市场的完善等许多有利的条件,同时也存在经济发展方式粗放、资本管制、美元惯性等诸多不利的条件。人民币国际化对货币政策可能会产生多方面的影响。由于货币政策具有溢出效应,同时考虑到利率市场化的影响,人民币国际化后货币政策的独立性将受到较大的冲击。人民币国际化对传导机制的影响表现在：由传统的信贷传导机制逐步转换为汇率传导机制,同时传导途径将进一步灵活化。由于存在货币替代,货币需求函数将变复杂且货币流量将更难以监控。在政策传导工具方面,准备金政策和再贴现政策效果将被削弱,而公开市场业务效果将增强。为了应对人民币国际化可能产生的影响,应当从加强对人民币的监督、完善利率与汇率机制、推进资本项目开放和合理搭配政策等方面采取对策来加以解决。

Status Quo and Impact of RMB Internationalization, and Orientation of the Future Monetary Policy

The current status of the RMB internationalization ties in two aspects: the favorable conditions include the expansion of the economy of scale and foreign exchange reserves, the stability of the currency, the perfection of the financial market, and the adverse conditions include the extensive mode of economic development, capital controls, dollars' inertia. RMB internationalization may have various impacts to China's monetary policy. Because of the spillover effect and the liberalization of interest rate, the independence of monetary policy will be impacted a lot. As to the impact to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the transmission mechanism converts from the traditional credit transmission mechanism to exchange rate transmission mechanism, the pathways will be further developed. Because of currency substitution effect, the currency demand will become complicated and the monetary flow will be more difficult to monitor. As to the impact to he transmitting tool, the reserve and rediscount policies will be weakened, and open market operations will be strengthened. In order to deal with the possible impacts after RMB internationalization, countermeasures need to be taken, such as to strength the supervision of RMB, enhance the mechanism of interest and exchange, promote the opening of the market of capital and address reasonable policies.