汇率、贸易弹性和经常账户

本文在国际收支弹性分析法框架下,讨论汇率变动影响贸易收支状况的临界弹性条件。放弃传统的马歇尔—勒纳条件,采用更符合实际情况的修正BRM条件,并且在实证检验中首次使用了Gamma分布滞后模型来估计相关贸易弹性,为政府通过汇率变动来调节经常账户提供了更精确的参考标准。

Exchange Rate, Trade Elasticity and Current Account

In the frame of elasticity approach to balance of payment,This paper discusses the condition of critical elasticity under which the changed exchange rate could influence trade balance. The innovation of this paper lies in introducing Corrected BRM Condition,which is more close to the fact,and giving up traditional Marshall-Lerner condition. In empirical test,this paper estimates the related trade elasticities using the Gamma distributed lag model. It is possible to provide more accurate criterion for central government to adjust the current account by changing exchange rate.