土地制度冲击、土地财政弱化与地方经济波动

国内部分学者基于土地财政的含义,认为土地财政出现的制度根源之一固然是我国的土地制度.基于此,欲破解我国目前土地财政困境,必先从变革土地制度开始.而土地制度变革的影响集中体现在土地制度冲击方面,土地制度的冲击通过弱化土地财政影响,进而引起地方经济的波动.试图构建代表性家庭、代表性企业及政府3个部门的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,将土地制度冲击纳入其中.在此基础上讨论不同土地流转冲击下的经济产出、代表性家庭的消费、政府投资及政府债务等变量的变化,以揭示土地流转对于土地财政治理的影响.

Impact of Land System,Weakening of Land Finance and Fluctuation of Local Economy

Based on the meaning of land finance, some domestic scholars believe that one of the institutional roots of land finance is indeed China''s land system. Therefore, in order to solve the current land financial dilemma, the reform is started with the land system. The impact of land system reform is mainly reflected in the impact of land system, which weakens the financial impact of land, and then causes the fluctuation of local economy. A new Keynesian DSGE model of representative families, representative enterprises and government departments is constructed, and the impact of land system is incorporated. Based on this, the changes of economic output, consumption of representative families, government investment and government debt under the impact of different land transfers are discussed to reveal the impact of land transfers on land financial governance.