浙江省区域物流增量与GDP增量关系的计量分析

本文首先使用Granger因果关系检验法检验浙江省1958—2004年间的物流增量和GDP增量的因果性,结果发现本省GDP增量的变化是引起物流增量变化的原因。通过协整和误差修正模型对两者的长期和短期关系进行了研究。研究发现,浙江省区域物流增量与GDP增量间存在着可靠的协整关系。这说明随着浙江经济的快速持续发展,保持两者的均衡发展具有重要的意义。最后提出基本结论以及相关政策建议。

The Econometrical Analysis on Relationship Between Logistics Incrementand the GDP Growth in the Area of Zhejiang Province

At first in this article we study the causality between logistics increment and GDP growth in the area of Zhejiang province from 1958 to 2004 by Granger Causality Test.The result shows that GDP growth causes logistics increment.Then we investigate the long-run and short-term relationship between logistics increment and GDP growth by cointegration and Error Correction Model.The result shows that there is a reliable cointegration relationship between them.These conclusions indicate that with the rapid and persistent development of economy in Zhejiang,and it is important to keep the balance between GDP growth and logistics increment.At last we put forward the basic conclusions and the correlative policy suggestions.