金融资产与实物资产对城镇居民消费影响的差异性研究

本文在相关资料基础上,对我国城镇居民持有金融资产与实物资产进行了重新核算,并采用ARDL-UECM模型计量分析了长短期内金融资产、实物资产对消费影响的差异性。结果表明:金融资产长期内对消费支出存在较弱的抑制作用,短期内存在较弱的促进作用;而实物资产长期内对消费存在有限的促进作用,短期内对消费存在较强的促进作用。产生这种差异的原因主要是:超额比重预防性储蓄导致金融资产对居民消费产生长期扭曲,以及过高自有住房率在房价攀升时只能提高短期边际消费倾向,长期则有限。现阶段只有降低超额比重预防性储蓄及抑制过高的房价才能进一步提高城镇居民的资产财富效应。

Difference Study of the Impact of Financial and Real Assets on Urban Residents Consumption

Based on the relevant information,this paper recalculated the assets held by urban residents of China.We developed the ARDL-UECM model to econometrically analyze the different impact on consumption between financial and real assets of urban residents during the long and short run.Financial assets produced weak inhibition,and weak promoting role respectively,and real assets produced limited and strong promoting role respectively during the long and short run.The cause of the main difference is that large proportion of savings deposits formed consumer’s long-run distortions from financial assets;and the high ratio of owner-occupied housing assets will only increase consumer’marginal propensity in the short-run,limited in the long-run.To reduce the excess proportion of precautionary savings and inhibit excessive prices of real estate is the only way to further improve asset wealth effect of urban residents at this stage.