理解中国的实际汇率:一价定律偏离还是相对价格变动?

本文利用1997年1月至2010年9月的数据对人民币实际汇率进行分解,发现可贸易品偏离一价定律因素可以解释实际汇率波动的60%—80%,而可贸易品与不可贸易品之间的相对价格波动只能解释实际汇率波动的20%—40%。这意味着研究人民币实际汇率需要更多地从可贸易产品出发,不应仅仅强调国内不可贸易品与可贸易品的相对价格变化。进一步的研究发现,可贸易品因素对于解释人民币实际汇率占主导的结论,与中国相对于其他国家的经济体发展阶段有关。但是,上述结论并不意味着传统的"巴拉萨-萨缪尔森"效应失灵。事实上,当在计量回归中控制可贸易品偏离一价定律因素以后,巴萨效应在中国显著成立。只不过,相对于可贸易品偏离一价定律因素,巴萨效应对实际汇率波动的影响是次要的。

Accounting for China's Real Exchange Rate:Deviation from LOOP or Relative Price Fluctuation

The paper decomposes RMB real exchange rate using data from January 1997 to September 2010 and the result shows that the deviation from law of one price of tradables accounts for 60% —80% of real exchange rate fluctuations,while the relative prices of tradables and non-tradables only accounts for 20% —40%.This means that analysis of RMB real exchange rate will be more focused on the analysis of tradables instead of placing emphasis on the relative price changes of non-tradables.Further analysis reveals that the dominant role of the tradables is related with economic development stage.However,the aforementioned conclusion does not signify that the traditional"Balassa-Samuelson Effect"is invalid.In fact,when the deviation of law of one price has been controlled in the model,the"Balassa-Samuelson Effect"still remains as a significant factor in China.But such effect plays a relatively minor role in comparison to the contribution of the deviation from law of one price of tradables.