| 非对称性利率政策对中国房价影响的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 程承坪,张旭. 非对称性利率政策对中国房价影响的实证分析[J]. 经济与管理研究, 2011, 0(9) |
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| 作者姓名： | 程承坪 张旭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉市,430072
2. 武汉大学经济与管理学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 房地产行业资金密集性的特点决定了其必然受到利率政策的重大影响。本文从利率政策的非对称性视角出发,区分扩张性和紧缩性利率政策区间,建立向量自回归与误差修正模型,并进行脉冲响应和方差分解分析,研究结果表明扩张性利率政策对房价的促进作用要强于紧缩性利率政策对房价的抑制作用。如果欲促进房地产复苏,则降低与投资者和消费者成本收益紧密相关的短中期存贷款利率;如果欲遏制房价过快上涨,则提高短期存款利率和长期贷款利率。根据实证研究的结果,文章提出了有针对性的政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 非对称性利率政策 房价 利率对房价的影响 |
Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Asymmetric Interest-Rate Policy on House Price of China |
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| CHENG Cheng-ping,ZHANG Xu. Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Asymmetric Interest-Rate Policy on House Price of China[J]. Research on Economics and Management, 2011, 0(9) |
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| Authors: | CHENG Cheng-ping ZHANG Xu |
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| Affiliation: | CHENG Cheng-ping,ZHANG Xu (School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072) |
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| Abstract: | The capital-intensive characteristic of real estate industry had been suffered by the significant impact of interest rate policy.Based on the asymmetric interest rate policy,the paper divided expansionary and contractionary interest rate policy,applied the vector auto regression(VAR) and error correction model(ECM) and used impulse response and variance decomposition analysis.The results of the study show that the role of expansionary interest rate policy on the promotion of house price is more obvious than... |
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| Keywords: | Asymmetric Interest Rate Policy House Price Impact of Interest Rates on House Price |
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