A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects |
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Authors: | Tim Bollerslev Uta Kretschmer Christian Pigorsch George Tauchen |
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Institution: | aDepartment of Economics, Duke University, Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708, United States;bDepartment of Economics, University of Mannheim, L7, 3-5, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany;cDepartment of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24-42, D-53113 Bonn, Germany |
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Abstract: | We develop an empirically highly accurate discrete-time daily stochastic volatility model that explicitly distinguishes between the jump and continuous-time components of price movements using nonparametric realized variation and Bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday data. The model setup allows us to directly assess the structural inter-dependencies among the shocks to returns and the two different volatility components. The model estimates suggest that the leverage effect, or asymmetry between returns and volatility, works primarily through the continuous volatility component. The excellent fit of the model makes it an ideal candidate for an easy-to-implement auxiliary model in the context of indirect estimation of empirically more realistic continuous-time jump diffusion and Lévy-driven stochastic volatility models, effectively incorporating the interdaily dependencies inherent in the high-frequency intraday data. |
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Keywords: | Realized volatility Bipower variation Jumps Leverage effect Simultaneous equation model |
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