Effects of Crop Prices,Nuisance Costs,and Wetland Regulation on Saskatchewan NAWMP Implementation Goals

Current Saskatchewan wetland regulation may be insufficient to meet North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) preservation and restoration goals in a climate of increasing demand for grains and nuisance costs. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to ascertain the effects that crop prices, nuisance costs, and alternate wetland regulation have on these goals. An integrated geographic information system and economic farm‐level model that assesses the net present value of drainage projects in the Whitesand River Watershed is employed. If prices eventually reach historical highs observed in the early 1970s, more than 85% of the wetland area in the study area could be drained, making NAWMP goals impossible to achieve. In this scenario, nuisance costs have little effect on drainage outcomes because they are dwarfed by the magnitude of agricultural revenue. If prices remain at the current higher levels observed from 2007 to 2012, the use of a binding permit could help achieve NAWMP goals. In this case, nuisance costs play a large role in determining the drainage of marginal, comparatively larger wetlands. If prices return to the recent lower levels observed from 1999 to 2006, current Saskatchewan regulation is sufficient. In this scenario, agricultural returns are low and nuisance costs are not high enough to cause wetland drainage. Both wetland regulation and nuisance costs can play an important role in agricultural wetland drainage, but that role depends critically upon the price of agricultural products.