Welfare Effects of Food Safety Recalls

Estimates of the welfare losses associated with food recalls typically assume the announcement causes demand to shift, or the willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) falls for all quantity levels. Several researchers, however, have observed evidence of a rotation as well, where WTP rises for some consumers and falls for others. Preference heterogeneity theory implies that this observation results from an increase in the dispersion of demand. We test this theory using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announcement data and Nielsen Homescan panel data for the fresh produce category. We find that the rotation effect cannot be disregarded, but is still dominated in welfare calculations by the shift effect of a recall announcement.