中国经济增长与环境污染——基于时序数据的经验分析(1985～2003)

本文选用1985￣2003年期间我国的六类环境污染指标,从时序维度考察了环境污染与我国人均收入变化之间的长期均衡关系和相互作用机制。首先,基于MaddalaandKim提出的改进的Johansen协整检验结果表明,在具有协整关系的四类变量中,只有二氧化硫排放总量与人均GDP之间存在正的协整关系,其他三类污染指标(工业废水排放量、工业烟尘排放量、工业固体废弃物排放量)与人均GDP之间协整关系均为负,这表明发展中国家的经济增长并不必然导致环境的恶化;其次,分别基于误差修正模型的因果关系检验与TodaandYamamoto提出的Granger因果检验方法考察了六类污染指标与人均GDP之间的双向因果关系,研究发现环境污染与我国人均GDP之间的一般规律:人均GDP是导致污染排放量变化的重要原因,但污染排放并不是导致人均GDP变化的原因。

Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution: An Empirical Analysis Based on China's Time Series Data (1985～2003)

This paper aims at investigating the relationship between the economic growth and the environmental pollution by using Chinese time series data set of six pollution indicators during 1985~2003.We first make a revised Johansen cointegration test by Maddala and Kim(1998),and find that except sulphur dioxide,the other four pollution variables all have a negative long-term cointegration relationship with GDP per capita,which means that the economic development doesn't necessarily result in environmental degradation.We also take two types of causality test,which are based on the error correction model and augmented VAR method by Toda and Yamamoto(1995) respectively,and find that in general,GDP per capita Granger causes pollution emission but it' is not true vice versa.