Earnings Mobility during the Transition: The Case of Hungary

This paper tests the hypothesis that the economic transition if associated with earnings mobility that is higher than in mature market economies, and which offsets the increase in earnings inequality. It uses the Hungarian Household Panel Survey for the period 1992-1997. The paper finds that indeed five-year earnings mobility in Hungary in the early years of the transition was significantly higher than in OECD countries. However, there are sings that the mobility rate has begun to decline. The pattern of earnings mobility had a significant equalizing effect: low earners were raised up while high earners were leveled down. However, mobility was taking place against a backdrop of the fall in real wages and therefore in most cases it implied the worsening of the absolute earnings status. Unfortunately, mobility does not help much low-paid workers. In contrast to most OECD countries, in Hungary low-paid workers have little chances to move up the earnings ladder. Low-paid jobs tend to be a permanent trap rather than a stepping stone to better paid employment.