土地财政、金融发展与城市扩张

基于2003-2016年中国285个地级及以上城市的面板数据,运用5种空间计量模型,通过设置地理距离空间权重矩阵,着重分析了土地财政、金融发展对城市扩张的影响。研究结果显示：土地财政对周围城市扩张存在正向"溢出效应",而金融发展对周围城市扩张存在"虹吸效应",上述影响随时间呈波动性上升趋势;土地财政与金融发展在推动本地城市扩张方面存在替代关系,但这种替代关系在不同地区层面、不同城市规模层面则具有明显的空间异质性;人口集聚是促使城市扩张的主要因素,绿化程度是抑制城市扩张的主要因素;城市扩张具有明显的"时间惯性",即滞后一期的城市扩张会对当期的城市扩张产生正向影响。

Land finance,financial development and urban expansion

Based on the panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2003 to 2016, five kinds of spatial econometric models were used. By setting up geographical distance spatial weight matrix, the impact of land finance and financial development on urban expansion was analyzed. Our results show that, firstly,land finance and financial development have an alternative relationship for the expansion of local cities, but this alternative relationship has significant spatial heterogeneity at different regions and different scale cities. Secondly, the concentration of population is the main promoting factor for urban expansion, and the greening degree is the main inhibiting factor for urban expansion. Thirdly, urban expansion has significant "time inertia",that is,urban expansion that lags one phase will have a positive impact on current period.