财政民生支出、居民可支配收入与城乡服务性消费

在中国居民消费结构加快升级和财政支出民生化倾向日益突显的背景下,财政民生支出对居民服务性消费的效应及影响机制备受关注。基于2007-2015年中国省际面板数据联立方程模型和三阶段最小二乘估计法（3SLS）的实证检验发现,财政民生支出总体对居民服务性消费具有显著挤入效应,居民可支配收入是财政民生支出影响居民服务性消费的重要中介变量,但中介效应的大小存在一定程度城乡差异。对于城镇居民而言,50.7%的挤入效应是通过居民可支配收入产生的,而对于农村居民来说,居民可支配收入对挤入效应的贡献率高达70.8%。因此,持续加大"农村倾向"的财政民生支出力度,充分发挥财政民生支出的收入分配功能,是促进居民服务性消费增长和缩小城乡居民服务性消费差距的有效途径。

Fiscal expenditure,residents' disposable income and service consumption of urban and rural residents

In the context of accelerating the consumption structure of Chinese residents and increasing the tendency of fiscal expenditure on people's livelihood, the effect of fiscal expenditure on residents' service consumption and the influence mechanism are of great concern. Based on the empirical study of China's provincial panel data simultaneous equations model and the three-stage least squares estimation (3SLS) in 2007-2015, it is found that the expenditure of the people's livelihood has a significant effect on the service consumption of the residents. Resident's disposable income is an important intermediary variable through which financial expenditure on people's livelihood affects residents' service consumption, but the size of the intermediary effect shows a little difference between the urban and rural residents to a certain degree. For urban residents, 50.7% of the crowding in effect is generated through the disposable income of residents, and for rural residents, the contribution of resident's disposable income to the crowding in effect is up to 70.8%. Therefore, it is an effective way to promote the growth of service consumption of urban and rural residents and to narrow the service consumption gap between urban and rural residents by increasing the expenditure of the people's livelihood in rural areas.