单位劳动力成本、汇率变动与出口的互动关联研究——基于面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型的分析

基于我国34个工业行业的面板数据,采用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）对单位劳动力成本、汇率风险与我国出口之间的互动关系进行研究。结果显示,单位劳动力成本与出口存在双向抑制作用,即工资上涨不利于出口规模的扩张,出口也无法促进工资增长率的上升,但出口显著地提升了劳动生产率;汇率变动对出口脉冲响应函数值正负交替,呈现出不确定性,出口对汇率变动产生了超调现象;我国存在"进口引致出口"机制,且出口也能通过收入效应和汇率两条路径影响进口;产出对出口的影响关系呈现不确定性,但出口可以带动产出。在方差分解中,单位劳动力成本变量对出口具有较强的解释能力,是导致我国出口变动的主要因素,汇率变动对出口的短期解释能力较强,进口在长期解释能力较强,产出在三个不同时期解释能力基本一致,但出口对其他变量的解释能力普遍较低。

The Interactive Relationship between Unit Labor Cost,Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Export-Based on the Panel Vector Auto Regressive (PVAR) Model

Based on the panel data of 34 industrial sectors in China, this paper studies the relationship between unit labor costs, exchange rate fluctuation and the exports of our country by using the panel vector auto regression model (PVAR). Results show that there is bidirectional inhibition between unit labor costs and exports, rising wages is not conducive to the expansion of export scale and the promotion of wage growth rate, but exports significantly enhance the labor productivity. The impulse response function value indicating the influence of exchange rate risk on export presents positive and negative alternation, which is characterized by uncertainty. Exports emerge overshoot phenomenon as a result of exchange rate changes. In addition, there exists "import induces export mechanism" in our country and export also has influence on import through two paths including the income effect and the exchange rate. The impacts of output on exports display uncertainty, but exports can drive production growth. In the variance decomposition, the unit labor cost variable possesses strong capability of explaining exports, is the main factor leading to changes in China's exports. Exchange rate risk is powerful to explain exports in the short term, import possesses long-term explanation ability, the explanation capability of output are basically the same in three different periods, but exports has a generally lower explanation ability compared to other variables.