中国零售业态变迁:基于2004-2013年统计数据的解释

从2004年至今，中国零售业态创新不断，新兴业态发展迅速，传统业态在努力地适应环境的变化。基于中国2004年至2013年的宏观统计数据，构建了影响零售业态变化的14个环境变量指标。通过建立理论模型，采用因子分析中的主成分方法，对我国零售业态的三个因变量指标：商品销售额、资产总计和主营业务利润进行回归，分析影响五种代表性零售业态：百货零售、超级市场、家用电器及电子产品专门零售、无店铺及其他零售、邮购及电子销售的环境因素。研究发现，交通运输、仓储和邮政业全社会固定资产投资对所有零售业态都是负面影响，原因可能是交通和仓储方面的投资分散了客流量，促进了零售业态分散化和多元化的发展。而且，与投资相关的变量对于零售业态的资产都产生积极的正向影响。对于无店铺及其他零售和邮购及电子零售，快递量发挥着非常直观的正向促进作用。

Chinese Retailing Format Transition Explained by Statistic Data From 2004 to 2013

Chinese retailing format has been changed and transited since 2004, which emerging formats have developed quickly while traditional formats have adapted to the changing environment. Based on the macro-level statistic data from 2004 to 2013, this paper constructs a model of influencing factors to Chinese retailing format. By using factor analysis, the author finds that there are five main factors reflecting the whole environment. Then the paper makes a regression analysis between sales, assets, main business' profit and the five factors. The retailing formats are representative by Department store, Supermarket, Electronic appliance and electronics, Non-store retailing and Mailing and others. The paper finds that investment of transportation, warehouse and mailing is reverse relation with the three indicators. The possible reason is maybe that the investment diversified traffic leading to decentrality and variety of retailing format. Meanwhile, the variables related to investment all contribute to retailers' assets. The delivery volume plays a very direct positive role in the development of Non-store retailing, Mailing and others.