FTA对出口商品种类多样化的影响——基于中国自贸区协定的实证分析

基于Melitz&Helpma的异质性企业模型,分析了FTA对出口商品种类多样性的影响,并利用2005-2014年中国与其签署FTA的17个伙伴国的HS-6位编码出口商品数据进行了验证。结果显示：中国签署的FTA一定程度上能促进中国出口商品种类的多样化,但促进效应存在显著的国别差异,只有当伙伴国为发展中国家时,FTA的实施才会对出口商品多样化产生显著的促进作用,且发展中国家关税的1%的降低将导致中国对该国出口商品种类数量0.061%的增长。此外,中国相对全要素生产率的提高、协定国GDP的增长、协定国相对物价水平的升高、贸易双方政治制度差异的缩小、运输成本的降低都将带来出口商品种类多样性的提升。在此基础上,提升中国出口商品种类的多样化水平应以"一带一路"倡议为契机,推动与周边国家签署FTA的进程,进一步提升中国出口商品多样化,促进对外贸易转型升级。

Can FTA Promote Export Diversification-Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese FTA

Based on the heterogeneous firms model under the monopolistic competitive conditions established by Melitz & Helpman, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of FTA on Chinese export diversification. Then the paper verifies the impact mechanism by using China's HS-6-digit export product panel data from the 17 countries covered by Chinese trade preferential policy in 2005-2014. The results indicate that the FTA signed by China can promote Chinese export diversification to a certain extent, but there are significant national differences in the promotion effect. Only when the partner country is a developing country will the implementation of FTA promote the export diversification, and a 1% reduction in tariffs in developing countries will lead to an increase of 0.061% in the number of export commodities. In addition, the improve of the Chinese relative TFP, the growth of the agreement countries' GDP, the increase of the relative price level of the agreement countries, the narrowing of differences in the political systems and the reduction in transportation costs will also promote Chinese export diversification. In summary, we should take the "the Belt and Road" as an opportunity to promote the process of signing trade preferences with neighboring countries, further enhance Chinese export diversification and promote the upgrading of Chinese trade structure.