PPP模式缓解了地方政府财政压力吗——基于中国地级市数据的经验研究

在PPP项目迅速增长的背景下,研究PPP模式能否有效缓解地方政府财政压力具有重要意义。基于1994-2015年地级市数据,采用DID-PSM分析方法和面板数据政策评估法,实证考察PPP模式的实施对地方政府财政压力的影响效应。研究发现：实施PPP模式可以有效缓解地方政府财政压力,并且作用逐年增大。目前,PPP项目投资规模大、项目平均年限短以及无示范项目的地区财政压力的下降效果更加明显。机制识别结果显示,提高地区固定资产投资规模是PPP模式减轻财政压力的主要渠道。进一步分析表明,尽管PPP模式对财政压力的影响效应不尽相同,但80%的地方政府财政压力显著降低。

Does the PPP Model Relieve Local Government Financial Pressure-An Empirical Study Based on the Data of Chinese Prefecture Level City

It is of great significance to study whether the PPP model relieves the financial pressure of local governments effectively in the context of rapid growth of PPP projects. Based on the data of prefecture-level cities in 1994-2015, this paper investigates the effect of PPP mode on fiscal pressure by using DID-PSM analysis method and panel data policy evaluation method. The study found that the implementation of PPP model can effectively alleviate the local government financial pressure, and the effect is increasing year by year. At present, PPP project investment scale is bigger, the project average length of life is shorter, and the city financial pressure of the demonstration project declines more. Mechanism identification results show that improving the scale of fixed asset investment in the region is the main channel for PPP to reduce fiscal pressure. Further analysis shows that despite the effect of the PPP model on financial pressures, 80% of local government financial pressures have been significantly reduced.