时空关联下要素市场扭曲对制造业升级的空间溢出效应研究

运用2008—2019年30个省区市的相关数据，对要素市场扭曲和制造业升级的时空演变进行分析，并检验要素市场扭曲对制造业升级的本地直接影响及空间溢出效应。研究表明，制造业升级存在明显正的空间自相关性，具有地理上的聚集特征，且要素市场扭曲在各地区间存在竞争示范效应。制造业转型升级具有内在的惯性及自我扬弃特征，前期升级水平对当期的升级进程具有动态影响。从全国范围考察，要素市场扭曲明显抑制了本地制造业升级步伐，且长期效应超过短期效应。相对发达与欠发达地区各自在要素市场扭曲互动策略上的差异致使本地要素市场扭曲对外地制造业升级反而存在正向空间外溢效应。生产性服务业集聚具有正的调节作用，它能弱化扭曲效应。从分区域层面考察，东部沿海各省区其要素市场扭曲度要明显弱于中西部地区，其对域内制造业升级的抑制作用相比中西部地区要小。最后，从增强企业内在创新动力、促进要素市场发育及完善区域自身发展条件等方面提出推动制造业转型升级的相关对策。

Research on the Spatial Spillover Effect of Factor Market Distortion on Manufacturing Upgrade from the Perspective of Space-time Correlation

The spatiotemporal evolution of factor markets distortions(FMD) and manufacturing upgrading is analyzed by using relevant data from 30 provinces,autonomous regions and city in 2008-2019,and the local direct impact of FMD on manufacturing upgrading and the space spillovers effects are empirically tested. Studies have shown that the manufacturing upgrade was spatially related, and it has geographical agglomeration characteristics. The FMD has a competitive demonstration effect in various regions. The manufacturing upgrade has inherent inertia and self-sublation characteristics. The early upgrade level has dynamic impact on the current upgrade process. From a nationwide perspective, the FMD have significant inhibitory effects on local manufacturing upgrade in various regions, and long-term effects exceed short-term effects. The differences in distortion interaction strategies between the developed and underdeveloped regions have caused a positive spillover effect on manufacturing upgrade of other regions. The producer services agglomeration has positive adjustment effect, and it can weaken the inhibition effect. From the sub-regional level, the FMD in the eastern coastal provinces is significantly weaker than that in the central and western regions, and its suppression effect on the manufacturing upgrade is smaller. Finally, it effective countermeasures are put forward to promote manufacturing upgrade level from strengthening enterprise inherent innovation power, promoting factor markets development and improving regional development conditions.