梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析与防控研究综述

伴随超标准巨震、极端暴雨洪水、巨型滑坡等灾害频繁发生，极端载荷作用下梯级水电枢纽群的灾害风险分析与防控等问题成为当前水利工程领域的研究热点。为分析梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险研究现状，绘制了国内外水库大坝溃坝事件的时间序列图，分析了梯级水电枢纽群的风险特征，总结评述了梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析和巨灾防控研究进展，主要结论如下：1)梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险是我国水利水电工程风险防控面临的主要问题；2)梯级水电枢纽群风险分析方面主要聚焦于梯级水库连溃概率的分析和计算，对于溃决可能产生的巨灾损失的量化研究不足，缺乏对巨灾因子及其相关影响作用下巨灾风险的评估；3)缺乏对梯级枢纽群灾害链的阻断技术研究和应急避险方案设计研究。为此提出了梯级水电枢纽群可能最大灾难(Probable Maximum Disaster, PMD)的科学内涵，考虑可能遭遇的多种致灾因子和承灾体特征，分析相互因果关系和极端荷载组合情况，初步建立了PMD评估的理论模型，为绘制梯级水电枢纽群在巨灾情景下的灾难空间外包线和估算PMD损失上限值提供科学依据，为梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析和防控提供理论基础和技术支持。

Review on catastrophe risk analysis and mitigation of cascade hydropower complexes

With the frequent occurrence of massive earthquake, extreme rainstorm flood and giant landslide, the risk assessment and mitigation of cascade hydropower complex under extreme load has become a hot research topic in the hydraulic engineering field. In order to analyze the research development of catastrophe risk, we drew the occurrence time map of the main dam failure events, analyzed the features of catastrophe risk of cascade hydropower complexes in the world, and reviewed the research progress of risk analysis and mitigation of cascade hydropower hubs. The main conclusions were as follows:1) catastrophe risk of cascade hydropower projects have become the main problems for water resources and hydropower projects in China; 2) the risk analysis of cascade hydropower complex group mainly focuses on the analysis and calculation of cascade reservoir failure probability, and the quantitative research on catastrophe loss that may be caused by outburst is insufficient, and the catastrophe risk assessment under the effect of disaster-causing factors and their related influences is lacking; 3) In the aspect of catastrophe mitigation of water resources and hydropower projects, there is a lack of research on blocking technology of cascade hub group disaster chain and design of emergency hedging scheme. In this paper, the concept of Probable Maximum Disaster (PMD) was proposed, which considered variety formative factors and hazard-affected body features. We analyzed the mutual causality and extreme load combination, and preliminarily established the theoretical model of PMD evaluation, which can provide a theoretical basis for scientifically drawing the disaster spatial outsourcing line under catastrophe scenarios of cascade hydropower complexes, estimating the upper limit value of PMD loss, and providing theoretical basis and technical support for catastrophe risk analysis and mitigation of cascade hydropower complexes.