生产率的结构性变动对我国外贸顺差的影响

基于一般均衡模型,本文分析了生产率的结构性变动对我国外贸顺差的影响。从国内来看,我国制造业(出口行业)的生产率增速要高于服务业(进口竞争行业),在"放大效应"的作用下,出口行业产出增速较快,出口规模急剧扩张;从国际来看,我国在制造业方面的生产率增速要高于美国等发达国家,而在服务业方面彼此相差不大,由此引发了人民币实际汇率上升,要素贸易条件改善。上述因素的相互叠加,致使我国出口额超常增长,成为外贸顺差的主要来源。

The Effect of the Structural Changes of Productivity on the Trade Surplus

On the basis of the general equilibrium model,this paper tries to explain the trade surplus using the structural changes of productivity. From the domestic viewpoint,the productivity growth in manufacture is quicker than in the services industry,and along with the magnifying effect,the export scale enlarges. From the international viewpoint,the productivity growth in domestic manufacture is quicker than other countries,although services industry basically is the same,which enhances the terms of trade. In a word,those contribute to the export quota and become the main causes of trade surplus.