FDI对我国价格贸易条件影响的实证分析

本文利用1985～2006年的统计数据，建立了包含价格贸易条件、初级产品进口额、工业制成品出口额、贸易顺差和外资企业出口占我国出口总额的比重这5个变量的协整模型和误差修正模型，对外商直接投资对我国价格贸易条件的影响进行了实证分析，实证结果表明工业制成品出口是导致价格贸易条件恶化的重要原因，而初级产品进口对改善价格贸易条件有正效应，但正效应目前还不显著，FDI对改善我国的价格贸易条件有显著的正效应。在此基础上，本文提出了改善我国价格贸易条件的政策建议。

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of FDI on China's Price Terms of Trade

Employing China's statistical data from 1985 to 2006,this paper establishes a cointegration model and a VECM and analyzes the impact of foreign direct investment on China's net barter terms of trade,which covers five variables of the terms of trade,imports of primary products,manufactured goods exports,trade surplus and the proportion of foreign-funded enterprises exports of China's total exports.The conclusion shows that manufactured goods exports is an important cause leading to the deteriorating net barter terms of trade,while the imports of primary products has positive effects on improving the terms of trade,though its positive effects are not obvious.FDI has a significant positive effect on improving the net barter terms of trade.On this basis,this paper puts forward some constructive suggestions for improving China's net barter terms of trade.