| 城市会展与经济增长关系实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶凯,田金信,施敏. 城市会展与经济增长关系实证研究[J]. 建筑管理现代化, 2011, 25(2) |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶凯 田金信 施敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 哈尔滨工业大学,管理学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001
2. 哈尔滨工业大学,建科建设监理咨询有限公司,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了更好地揭示城市会展与经济增长间的关系,弥补投入产出分析和可计算一般均衡模型的缺陷,以广州市为例,利用协整分析和Granger因果关系检验进行实证研究,建立了城市会展与三次产业结构之间的向量误差纠正模型.检验结果表明:城市会展与城市经济之间存在互动关系;城市会展经济系统具有涌现性特征;会展需求、成交金额与工业产出、服务业产出之间协整关系中短期有效,但从长期来看,城市建设管理者与会展经济参与主体需谨慎对待互动关系所带来的不确定风险.
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| 关 键 词： | 城市会展 经济增长 向量误差纠正 Granger因果检验 多变量协整 |
Empirical Analysis of City Exhibition and Economic Growth |
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| YE Kai,TIAN Jin-xin,SHI Min. Empirical Analysis of City Exhibition and Economic Growth[J]. Construction Management Modernization, 2011, 25(2) |
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| Authors: | YE Kai TIAN Jin-xin SHI Min |
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| Affiliation: | YE Kai1,TIAN Jin-xin1,SHI Min2(1.School of Management,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin,150001,China,2.HIT Jianke Construction Supervision & Consultant Co.,Ltd.,Harbin150001,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to clarify the relationships between city exhibitions and economic growth and overcome the disadvantages of the input-output model and the computable general equilibrium model,this paper established a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) for city exhibitions.The paper also established the industrial structures by using the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test for the city of Guangzhou in China.The test results show that the interactive relationship exists between city exhibitions and ec... |
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| Keywords: | city exhibition economic growth vector error correction Granger causality multivariate cointegration |
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