汇改对我国中小企业出口的影响测度与预测——基于汇改后月度数据的实证分析

当前我国中小企业出口经营困境凸显,进一步汇改是否会加剧其困境成为关注的焦点。本文基于汇改后的月度数据,采用GARCH模型分析各次汇改对汇率弹性的影响特征,构建向量误差修正模型测度和预测汇改对中小企业出口的影响。结果表明:汇改促使人民币每升值1%,其出口减少3.874%;汇率弹性增强1%,其出口减少0.034%。预测的中小企业出口总额较为平稳。进一步汇改以增强汇率弹性为核心不会对中小企业出口总量造成大的冲击。

Estimating and Forecasting the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Reform on SME Export:An Empirical Analysis Based on Monthly Data after Exchange Rate Reform

Chinese SMEs’ export difficulty highlights the issue of whether further RMB exchange rate reforms will aggravate the SMEs’ dilemma.This paper employs GARCH model to analyze the impact of different exchange rate reforms on exchange rate volatility.And it introduces VECM model to estimate and forecast their impact on SME export.The result shows that: when exchange rate reform causes RMB appreciation by 1%,then SME export will decrease by 3.874%,and when exchange rate volatility increase by 1%,their export will decrease by 0.034%.The forecasting export volume also shows a relatively steady upward trend.As the key objective of further exchange rate reforms is to increase exchange rate volatility,it will not bring much impact on the total SME export volume.