强制性制度变迁周期的实证分析

将制度量化,使用动态优化工具推导了政府主导的强制性制度变迁情形下,我国最优改革速度与最优改革路径。结果表明,我国改革具有周期性特征,并且改革周期性具有内生性;最优改革速度随时间衰减,并且衰减力度递增;改革速度始终大于零,改革始终在推进;最优改革路径选择依赖于最优改革速度和改革起点,并且最优改革路径关于改革速度递减,关于改革初始条件递增。使用我国市场化数据进行实证分析,对命题进行检验,结果支持我国强制性改革周期的存在性,支持了相关命题。

Mandatory Institutional Change Empirical Analysis of the Cycle

Will use the system dynamic optimization tools quantitative,deduced the government leading mandatory institutional change circumstances,the optimal reform in our country,speed and the optimal reform path.The results show that China＇s reform,is cyclical characteristics,and reform of endogenous periodic has.The optimal reform over time,and the attenuation rate attenuation increases strength;Reform always greater than zero speed,in promoting reform.The optimal reform path choice depends on the optimal reform speed and reform starting point,and the optimal reform path decline of the reform of the reform,increasing the initial conditions.Use our country market data,the empirical analysis on proposition for inspection,the results support the reform in our country,the existence of mandatory periodic,support the correlative propositions.