贸易条件变动对中国经济增长影响的实证分析

文章根据1980-2006年的数据对价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件与经济增长之间的关系进行了经验分析，主要结论有：（1）贸易条件调整的实际GDP指标分析表明，从总体上看，价格贸易条件变化对我国的经济增长产生了负效应。（2）协整分析的结果表明，经济增长与价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件之间存在着稳定的长期均衡关系，但是价格贸易条件对经济增长的影响不显著，收入贸易条件对经济增长的影响也不是非常显著。（3）Granger因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解也都验证了协整分析的结果。最后，根据实证分析的结果，提出了相应的对策建议。

An Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Variations of Terms of Trade on China Economic Growth

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between terms of trade and China economic growth with the data 1980-2006. Our conclusions are as follows:（1）The analysis of the indicator of real GDP adjusted by terms of trade finds that the variations of net barter terms of trade generally have negative effects on China economic growth;（2）The results of co-integration analysis show that long term equilibrium exits between China economic growth and terms of trade. However, the coefficient of net barter terms of trade is not significant. The coefficient of income terms of trade is not very significant either;（3）The Granger causality test and the analysis of impulse response and variance decomposition all verify the results of co-integration analysis. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.