中国出口贸易增长分解与机理分析

本文首先基于Hummels和Kenow(2000)建立的贸易增长分解模型对近三十年来中国出口贸易的增长进行了分解,指出该增长过程中的两个关键转折点,勾勒出了中国贸易发展的两条主线——依照比较优势的出口贸易扩张和政府主导型的出口贸易结构升级。然后,文章利用一个简化的垂直差异产品模型分析了中国改革开放三十年出口贸易增长的机理和福利变化,指出了中国未来贸易发展的方向。

Analysis of Export Growth in China during the past 30 Years

Applying a simple decomposition of trade growth offered by Hummels and Kenow (2002),the paper provides insights into China's export trade growth since the reform and opening-up,it also points out that in China's export growth there exist two "turning points" and two ways of growth:one based on comparative advantage and another based on government-oriented policies.Then we apply a simplified vertical product differentiation analyzing the mechanism of China's export in the past 30 years and the changes of welfare caused by the growth.In the end we point out the direction of the export growth in China.