开放条件下经济周期理论的扩展与应用——换一种思维看待次贷危机

由于次贷危机爆发后造成了巨大的破坏力,因此对其爆发原因和必然性的探讨一直是学术界争论的焦点。本文尝试从全新的角度出发——以经济周期理论为依据,从开放宏观的视角,对次贷危机爆发的原因与必然性做出更合理的新解释。首先,通过对战后美国经济结构演变的分析,探究其经济周期的演化逻辑。其次,分别从短、中、长周期的角度和国际经济格局演变的角度研究次贷危机的爆发原因与必然性。最后,指出美国经济结构的深刻调整和全员劳动生产率的持续提高才是减轻经济危机破坏性与频发性的根本方法。

The Extension and Application of Business Cycles Theory in the Condition of Open Economy: Another Thinking in Knowing Subprime Mortgage Crisis

Since subprime crisis caused a severe economic damage,both the cause and inevitalbility of its breakout have been the focus of academic arguments.This article attempts to educe a new comprehension and explanation of the cause and inevitalbility of subprime crisis,from the perspectives of opening macroeconomics based on the business cycles theory.Firstly,we explored the evolution logic of the U.S.business cycles by analyzing the U.S.economic structure.Secondly,we studied the cause and inevitability of subprime crisis from the perspectives of short-term,mid-term and long-term business cycles,separately,as well as the development of international economic configuration.Last but not least,we make suggestions that the adjustment of economic structure and the sustained improvement of gross labor productivity in the US are the basic solution of mitigating the destruction and frequency of economic crisis.