基于经济增长的中国最优消费规模:1978—2006

中国长期实行"重投资、轻消费"的政策,消费率一直偏低。以限制消费为代价的经济增长不仅无法实现社会福利最大化和居民效用最大化,而且也是不可持续的。消费不足导致经济增长乏力,然而消费过度会导致投资不足从而阻碍经济增长,因此经济中存在最优的消费规模。在检验消费规模和经济增长关系的基础上,建立消费的内生增长模型,利用1978—2006年间29年的经验数据,求得中国消费率的最优值为66.46%,据以提出扩大消费以扩大内需、促进经济增长的政策建议。

Chinese Optimal Consumption Scale Based on Economic Growth: 1978-2006

China has implemented prolonged policy of "much investment and little consumption",and the consumption rate has been low for a long time.The economic growth at the cost of limiting consumption can neither achieve maximization of social welfare and residents' utility,nor is sustainable.Inadequate consumption will lead to weak economic growth while excessive consumption will lead to inadequate investment,which hampers economic growth.Therefore,there is an optimal consumption size in economy.Based on the test of the relationship between consumption and economic growth,with data from 1978 to 2006,this paper establishes an endogenous growth model of consumption spending and China's optimal consumption size is 66.46%.Finally,this paper proposes policies to increase consumption and domestic demand,and to promote economic growth.