人口老龄化会导致资产价格步入下跌通道吗?

根据生命周期理论,年轻人会购入资产为老年生活做准备,成为资产的需求者;老年人则会出售资产换取消费品,成为资产的供给者,因此人口结构的变化会通过资产供需结构的变化决定资产价格的长期走势。美国、日本以及其它OECD国家的经验都基本上验证了这一点。本文阐释了人口结构与资产价格关系的作用机理,在OLG框架下结合价格调整模型,构建了一个非均衡的资本资产价格模型,并进行了数值模拟。数值模拟的结果表明,在没有明显的技术进步情形下,从2013年开始,我国的实际资产价格会进入一个长期的下跌通道。我们认为,提高劳动生产率、改变当前的生育政策以及提倡养老金年金化给付,是解决和缓解这一问题的三个主要思路。

Will an Aging Population Lead to the Degeneration Phase of Asset Price?

According to life-circle theory,young workers purchase asset to prepare for their retirement while the old sell asset for consumption.The overlapping transaction would impact asset price through demographic structure,which is proved by the cases of USA and Japan.This paper interprets the mechanism of interaction between demographic structure and asset price,and then builds up a price-adjustment model in the OLG framework.Through simulation calculation,it is found that on the condition of no significant technology innovation from 2013 the real asset price of China would go into the degeneration phase.The paper suggests that the birth control policy should be canceled and the technology innovation is encouraged to create technology bonus to compensate demographic bonus,and annuity payment of pension.