银行竞争背景下定向降准政策的“普惠”效应——基于A股和新三板三农、小微企业数据的分析

本文基于A股和新三板企业的微观数据,采用倍差法(DID)检验定向降准货币政策的实施是否对农业和小微企业等所谓“弱势部门”的信贷资源产生了作用,从而实现政策的“普惠”效应。同时基于定向降准政策的影响机制,本文将基于时间维度和区域维度的银行竞争引入实证模型,进一步探讨了银行竞争对定向降准政策“普惠”效应的影响。结果表明:首先,我国定向降准政策可以促进农业企业和小微企业获取信贷资源,发挥了普惠效应;其次,银行竞争可以在一定程度上对定向降准政策的“普惠”效应表现出正向调节作用,具体来说,时间维度的银行竞争对定向降准政策的“普惠”效应的影响较为明显,区域维度的银行竞争没有调节作用。

The Inclusive Effects of Targeted RRR Cuts against the Background of Bank Competition: An Empirical Analysis Based on Corporate Data from Mainland China

After several decades of a “scale-type extensive growth” development pattern, China's economic development has reached a new normal in which the main policy objectives are to guide the transformation and upgrading of enterprises and the rational allocation of financial resources, and to resolve the contradictions in the economic structure. In this context, China's central bank has created innovative operating tools for its monetary policy, such as the targeted RRR cuts. This paper empirically tests the “inclusive” effect of the targeted RRR cuts and further explores their relationship with bank competition.We divide the orientation sector into agriculture-related enterprises and small and micro enterprises. Based on the macro data and enterprise credit data in Wind, the enterprise microdata in CSMAR, and the monetary policy data in the People's Bank of China for the 2011 to 2017 period, we use the propensity score matching (PSM) method to select the control group and the DID method to check whether implementation of the RRR cuts influenced the credit resources of the so-called “vulnerable sectors” such as agriculture and small and micro enterprises, thus achieving the intended “inclusive” effect. Furthermore, on account of the mechanism of the target RRR cuts, this paper introduces time and regional dimensions for bank competition into the empirical model, and then analyzes the impact of bank competition on the “inclusive” effect of the targeted RRR cuts. To exclude the interference of other policies, we choose the second half of 2011 as the policy implementation time point, and conduct a counterfactual test. The result is not significant, which indirectly indicates the robustness of the previous empirical results. In addition, we conduct a rigorous robustness test by changing the sample. For the sample of agriculture-related enterprises, we select agricultural enterprises from the A-shares, and find matching non-agricultural enterprises among the New OTC Market listed enterprises to obtain 27 agricultural-related samples. For small and micro-enterprise samples, we randomly select 78 large enterprises from China's A-shares and the New OTC Market as the control group. The results of the robustness test are not significant, thus confirming the conclusions of our main research. Our results show that China's targeted RRR cuts have an “inclusive” effect by promoting agricultural enterprises and small and micro enterprises to obtain credit resources. Moreover, bank competition can positively enhance the “inclusive” effect of targeted RRR cuts to some extent. The impact of bank competition is more obvious in the time dimension, but has no regulatory effect in the regional dimension. Therefore, it is beneficial to appropriately increase the use of targeted RRR cuts and promote the development of the banking industry to adjust the economic structure and develop “inclusive finance.” Our analysis contributes to the literature by empirically testing the “inclusive” effect of the targeted RRR cuts using firm micro data by means of the propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods. This firm-level study with the latest data on China's A-shares and the New OTC Market also makes up for the lack of micro-data support in the existing research. Finally, we introduce bank competition according to the mechanism of targeted RRR cuts, not only as a test of the relationship between bank competition and policy control, but also to further explore the factors influencing the “inclusive” effect of the targeted RRR cuts. Subsequent research could be extended in the following ways. First, research on the bank-level data would be useful, especially the relationship between the targeted RRR cuts and bank risk-taking based on credit channels and risk-taking channels. Second, starting with the signal transmission channel, researchers could analyze whether, when approaching the implementation standards of the targeted RRR cuts, the bank will significantly adjust its credit structure in accordance with the policy. Third, from the perspective of competition and concentration of the banking industry, banking market structures could be examined to find the best match for the monetary policy operation. Fourth, further study of the relationship between targeted RRR cuts and industrial restructuring is needed, and analysis of the dynamic adjustment between the targeted RRR cuts, “inclusive finance,” corporate credit, and investment.