经济政策不确定性、地区文化与保险需求

本文在拓展背景风险理论研究的基础上,揭示了经济政策不确定性对保险需求的影响及其受地区文化制约的理论机制。并利用2007-2017年中国30个地区的月度面板数据,检验了经济政策不确定性、地区文化与保险需求间的内在联系。结果发现:第一,经济政策不确定性会对保险需求产生显著正影响,且这种效应在地区人身险需求上表现更明显;第二,将地区文化指标集纳入经济政策不确定性与保险需求关系的研究框架,发现地区文化差异会对经济政策不确定性影响保险需求产生调节效应。因此政府需在充分重视经济政策波动和文化对经济活动的双重影响基础上,加强国内社会保障体系建设,建立更透明的信息传递渠道,培育人们主动抵抗风险的意识和文化习惯,调整保险供给结构,以减少不确定性对社会经济行为的负面冲击。

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Regional Culture,and Insurance Demand

Studies of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomics and micro-firms have ignored the role of insurance demand, which is closely related to uncertainty. Insurance demand should be considered in studies of the impact of policy uncertainty on different types of insurance. Existing research also ignores the different extent to which individuals are affected by economic policy uncertainty. Regional culture may influence individuals' reactions to external policy shocks, making the impact of uncertainty on economic activities variable. Therefore, it is unclear how economic policy uncertainty affects insurance demand or how regional culture mediates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance demand. These are the key issues of this study.
The study first uses the background risk theory of Guiso and Jappelli (1998) to reveal the mechanism through which economic policy uncertainty impacts insurance demand and further analyzes whether regional culture influences the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance demand. Second, using monthly panel data of 30 regions in China from 2007 to 2017, the study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on total insurance demand, personal insurance demand, and property insurance demand, focusing on the different impacts of economic policy uncertainty on the three types of personal insurance. Third, using the 30-region cultural dimension data measured by Zhao Xiangyang et al. (2015), this study examines the moderating effects of uncertainty avoidance, performance orientation, societal collectivism, assertiveness, and power distance on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance demand. There are three key findings. First, increasing economic policy uncertainty has a significantly positive impact on regional insurance demand. Second, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance demand is restricted by cultural differences. Third, when economic policy uncertainty rises, people tend to avoid risks by purchasing personal insurance, especially life and health insurance with social security and savings functions. Property insurance demand is less influenced by economic policy uncertainty.
The main contributions of this study are as follows. First, we find that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's insurance market is robust. This study not only clarifies the mechanism through which economic policy uncertainty affects insurance demand, it also empirically tests the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the demand for different types of insurance. Second, traditional background risk theory emphasizes that background risks, including uncertainty, have an impact on insurance demand, but ignores the potential regulatory effect of regional culture on the impact of background risk on insurance demand. This study expands the theoretical model by incorporating regional culture into the research framework, and analyzes the mechanism through which regional culture moderates the effect of background risk on insurance demand. Furthermore, this study finds that regional culture has a moderating effect on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance demand in China.
The findings have important theoretical and practical implications. First, the Chinese government should increase its investment in the social security system to enhance people's ability to withstand uncertainty. Furthermore, the government should disclose more information to establish a more open and transparent information transmission channel, which helps to reduce the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on social behavior. Second, the implementation of China's economic policy adjustments should be based on a full understanding of the cultural characteristics of each region, so that the government can appropriately guide the cultivation of risk-aversion cultures. Third, the government should formulate incentives to adjust the structure of the insurance market and guide the expansion of the markets in property insurance and personal accident insurance. Furthermore, Chinese insurance companies should diversify the supply of insurance products, strengthen the market promotion and product design of property insurance and personal accident insurance, and promote the balanced growth of China's insurance market.