制造业集聚与城市化协同驱动城市绿色全要素生产率提升研究 ——来自中国内地261个城市的经验证据

以2004-2017年中国内地261个城市数据为例,运用非线性门槛模型与动态空间效应分解模型,分别基于协调、非协调与空间溢出情境,对制造业集聚布局与城市化发展协同驱动绿色全要素生产率提升进行机制分析与实证检验。结果发现：虽然制造业集聚与城市化双轮驱动更能助推城市绿色全要素生产率提升,但当城市化水平超过0.424 1、制造业集聚度小于0.706 7或超过1.291 1时,非协调协同驱动下绿色全要素生产率激励机制便会失灵。全样本动态空间效应分解表明,短期内制造业集聚与城市化互动能够为整体地区间绿色全要素生产率提升创造机遇。但长期来看,地区间要素流动和重组将引致绿色先行城市制造业集聚与城市化协同稳态微妙失衡,从而导致期望的绿色全要素生产率增长路径中断。异质性城市动态空间效应分解表明,当前绿色极点仍集中在新一线、一线与二线城市,三线、四线与五线城市的绿色极化效应尚不显著,区域间绿色回流与溢出效应尚不明显。

Research on the Synergistic Effect of Manufacturing Agglomeration and Urbanization Development for Urban Green Total Factor Productivity

Taking 261 cities in China from 2004 to 2017 as an example,this paper uses the nonlinear threshold model and dynamic spatial effect decomposition,based on the "coordination","non-coordination"and "space overflow"scenarios,respectively.Mechanism analysis and empirical testing were carried out to influence the development of green total factor productivity.The study found that although the "two-wheel drive" of manufacturing agglomeration and urbanization can promote the improvement of urban green total factor productivity,when the urbanization level exceeds 0.4241 and the manufacturing concentration is less than 0.706 7 or exceeds 1.291 1,"non-coordination" collaboratively driven green total factor productivity incentives will fail.The full-sample dynamic spatial effect decomposition shows that the interaction between manufacturing agglomeration and urbanization in the short term can create opportunities for the improvement of green total factor productivity among the whole regions; but in the long run,inter-regional factor flows and restructuring will lead to the accumulation of green leading urban manufacturing.The subtle imbalance of coordination with urbanization,and thus the expected path of green total factor productivity growth is interrupted.The decomposition of heterogeneous urban dynamic spatial effects shows that the current green poles are still concentrated in the new first-line,first- and second-tier cities,and the green polarization effects of the three-,four- and five-line cities are not significant,and the green reflow and spillover effects between regions are not yet obvious.