我国货币需求的变动及其决定机制——基于VEC模型的实证研究

基于VEC模型对我国货币需求变动与决定机制的实证研究表明,利率对货币需求、收入和物价等宏观经济变量的影响不具有显著性,预期通货膨胀率变动会对货币需求形成强烈冲击,股票市场在长期和短期对货币需求的影响机制不同,M2余额的调整相对M1而言对经济运行具有更显著的影响。鉴于此,中央银行在货币政策制定时应以M2作为主要的调控目标,重点防范物价异动对货币需求的冲击,加强股市对货币需求的影响机制研究,突出公开市场业务在货币政策工具中的作用。

Alteration and Determinative Mechanism of China's Money Demand: An Empirical Analysis Based on VECM

The empirical study on China′s demand of money based on VECM gains these conclusions: money demand and other economic factors such as income and price are not sensitive to interest rate; money demand responds intensively to the random movement of inflation expectation; the long-term mechanism stock market influences money demand is different from the short-term mechanism; the causality between M1 and the economic factors is different from the causality between M2 and these factors. Therefore, our central bank should target M2 mainly, restrain inflation′s shock towards money demand, reinforce the investigation that how stock market influences money demand, and give prominence to the function of the open market business as monetary policy tools.